Dear friend, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he is still open to a diplomatic solution over Ukraine. The Kremlin has also announced the withdrawal of a small number of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. These are hopeful signs. But war in Ukraine remains a distinct possibility. On paper, a Russian invasion seems completely unlikely. After all, Russian forces would face massive resistance from the Ukrainians, a series of punishing sanctions against the Russian economy, and the loss of important trade relations. On the ground, however, an invasion still looks likely. Why else would more than 100,000 Russian troops surround Ukraine on three sides? The only way to square this apparent contradiction is to assume that Putin wants the best deal possible. The show of force short of invasion is the equivalent of smelling salts applied to NATO so that the alliance backs off. The big question is whether the Biden administration is willing or able to provide that deal. Everyone from the UN secretary general to Chinese leader Xi Jinping is urging a diplomatic solution. Russian troops can’t stay in this holding pattern forever. The next week will prove critical. Meanwhile, here at Foreign Policy In Focus, we’ve published an open letter from civic activists across Europe, the United States, and the former Soviet Union calling for a new movement from below to prevent another war in Europe and construct a new security structure from below. In my World Beat column this week, I focus on the “Freedom Convoy” that has disrupted life in Canada and trade with the United States. These “suicide truckers” want to spread their anti-government, antisocial, and ultimately self-defeating messages all around the world. Also at FPIF, Samantha Garcia laments the monopoly the National Guard has on providing services at a time of need. Mark Weisbrot explores the steep humanitarian consequences of U.S. sanctions on Afghanistan. And finally, I tell a story from 2025 about what might happen if the scattered campaigns against experts and expertise — like the attacks on Anthony Fauci and teachers of critical race theory — come together into a sustained MAGA-style Cultural Revolution. John Feffer
Director, FPIF | 
